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CENAS Project

LITTORAL DYNAMICS MODEL


MACRO SCALE LITTORAL MODEL
Shoreline dynamics and risk analysis associated with the coastal low-lying areas which are likely to be flooded in the next 100 years are investigated at the macro scale with a 200 m space resolution grid. The coastline regression and the areas which are expected to be flooded should be considered as `potentially' regressed and `potentially' flooded because all the natural (dunes) and man-made (coastal structures, embankments) obstacles to water ingression can hardly be taken into account at this resolution.
DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL (DEM) AT SELECTED TIMES
DEM in 2050 and 2100 are constructed by decreasing the present ground elevation by the amount of natural and anthropic subsidence predicted by the corresponding models.
DEM OF THE NORTHERN ADRIATIC SEA AND THE EASTERN PO PLAIN
DEM in 2050 with the pessimistic subsidence scenario
DEM OF THE NORTHERN ADRIATIC SEA AND THE EASTERN PO PLAIN
DEM in 2100 with the pessimistic subsidence scenario
STORM SURGE WITH SELECTED RETURN PERIODS
Storm surges simulated by the hydrodynamic model are landward extended. 9 scenarios are taking into account: 1, 10 and 100 year return period events are simulated at present, in 2050 and 2100.
EXTENDED STORM SURGE IN THE NORTHERN ADRIATIC SEA
Present DEM, storm event with 1 year return period
EXTENDED STORM SURGE IN THE NORTHERN ADRIATIC SEA
DEM in 2050, storm event with 10 year return period
EXTENDED STORM SURGE IN THE NORTHERN ADRIATIC SEA
DEM in 2100, storm event with 100 year return period
WAVE SETUP WITH SELECTED RETURN PERIODS
Wave setups computed for the storm events characterized by 1, 10 and 100 year return period are landward extended.
EXTENDED WAVE SETUP IN THE NORTHERN ADRIATIC SEA
Storm event with 1 year return period
EXTENDED WAVE SETUP IN THE NORTHERN ADRIATIC SEA
Storm event with 10 year return period
EXTENDED WAVE SETUP IN THE NORTHERN ADRIATIC SEA
Storm event with 100 year return period
POTENTIALLY COASTLINE REGRESSION
Expected coastline profile at a given time is computed as the intersection between the ground level at that time and the mean sea level at the same time. Only land subsidence and sea level rise caused by global climate change are considered.
NORTHERN ADRIATIC COASTLINE REGRESSION
In 2100 with the optimistic anthropic land subsidence scenario
NORTHERN ADRIATIC COASTLINE REGRESSION
In 2100 with the pessimistic anthropic land subsidence scenario
NORTHERN ADRIATIC COASTLINE REGRESSION
Area of the present lowlands which might potentially and permanently flooded by sea-water
POTENTIALLY FLOODED AREAS
Low-lying areas which may be episodically flooded owing to eustatism, land subsidence, and intense meteo-marine events are detected. 15 scenarios are analyzed considering 3 selected times (at present, in 2050 and 2100), 3 storm return periods (1, 10 and 100 years), and 2 anthropic settlement scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic).
POTENTIALLY FLOODED LOWLANDS
In 2100 with a 1 year return period event, and the pessimistic land subsidence scenario
POTENTIALLY FLOODED LOWLANDS
In 2100 with a 100 year return period event, and the pessimistic land subsidence scenario
POTENTIALLY FLOODED LOWLANDS
Sizes (km2) of the potentially flooded lowlands for the 15 selected scenarios
RISK ANALYSIS
A risk factor R is associated to each flooded area. R is computed as the product between the meteo-marine event probability, the area vulnerability (assumes equal to the water elevation over the area), and the economic value of the area itself (based on the land use). The risk factor is normalized to 100.
POTENTIAL RISK MAP
At present, with a 1 year return period event
POTENTIAL RISK MAP
At present, with a 100 year return period event
POTENTIAL RISK MAP
In 2100, with the optimistic scenario and a 100 year event
POTENTIAL RISK MAP
In 2100, with the pessimistic scenario and a 100 year event
POTENTIAL RISK MAP
Mean normalized risk factor for the 15 selected scenarios

LOCAL SCALE LITTORAL MODEL
The episodically flooded low-lands and the associated risk are evaluated at the Ravenna, Cesenatico, and Rimini local sites. Due to the limited extent of these study areas (whose characteristic length is of the order of 10 km) a detailed analysis based on DEMs with a 10 cm vertical resolution on a regular square grid of 10x10 m is performed. Major natural and man-made obstacles to water ingression are also taken into account.
POSITION/SHAPE INDEX
A position/shape index I is introduced to compute the risk factor at the local scale. I weights the inundation risk associated with a flooded area on the basis of the area position and shape.
POSITION/SHAPE INDEX MAP
At Ravenna site
POSITION/SHAPE INDEX MAP
At Cesenatico site
POSITION/SHAPE INDEX MAP
At Rimini site
RISK ANALISYS
A risk factor R is associated to each flooded area. R is computed as the product between the position/shape index, the meteo-marine event probability, the area vulnerability (assumes equal to the water elevation over the area), and the economic value of the area itself (based on the land use). The risk factor is normalized to 100.
RAVENNA
RISK MAP
At present, with a 1 year return period event
RISK MAP
At present, with a 100 year return period event
RISK MAP
In 2100, with the optimistic scenario and a 100 year event
RISK MAP
In 2100, with the pessimistic scenario and a 10 year event
RISK MAP
In 2100, with the pessimistic scenario and a 100 year event
RISK MAP
Mean normalized risk factor for the 15 selected scenarios
CESENATICO
RISK MAP
At present, with a 1 year return period event
RISK MAP
At present, with a 100 year return period event
RISK MAP
In 2100, with the optimistic scenario and a 100 year event
RISK MAP
In 2100, with the pessimistic scenario and a 10 year event
RISK MAP
In 2100, with the pessimistic scenario and a 100 year event
RISK MAP
Mean normalized risk factor for the 15 selected scenarios
RIMINI
RISK MAP
At present, with a 1 year return period event
RISK MAP
At present, with a 100 year return period event
RISK MAP
In 2100, with the optimistic scenario and a 100 year event
RISK MAP
In 2100, with the pessimistic scenario and a 10 year event
RISK MAP
In 2100, with the pessimistic scenario and a 100 year event
RISK MAP
Mean normalized risk factor for the 15 selected scenarios

Presentation author: Andrea Pellizzon